Keir Starmer is back from his trip to the Far East, where he successfully secured concessions from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite some interference from Donald Trump, the trip to Beijing went smoothly, which is a relief for No10. However, focus now shifts to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the traditionally Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will choose their new MP following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster by Labour’s governing body has raised concerns among MPs about the potential repercussions.
Some fear that losing the by-election could be seen as a sacrifice made by Keir Starmer to keep Andy Burnham out, which could reflect poorly on the party. However, there is optimism among some Labour members that the seat can still be won, despite the challenges.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted that the by-election could involve significant players such as Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party, with uncertainties surrounding the outcome. The constituency, once considered a safe Labour stronghold, now faces a more competitive race due to shifting voter trends.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, noted that the by-election is shaping up to be a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, with Nigel Farage’s influence being a defining factor. Tactical voting could play a crucial role in determining the outcome, with voters facing dilemmas on how to strategically cast their ballots.
As the by-election approaches, the race remains open, with various factors influencing voter decisions and the ultimate winner.