U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that the Keystone XL oil pipeline project, previously abandoned by past administrations, could be revived under a new trade deal with Canada. However, industry experts believe this statement may be more about politics than the oil industry.
In a social media announcement just before new tariffs on Canadian goods were set to take effect, Trump revealed a “deal” with Canada and a temporary halt on tariffs. He mentioned the Keystone XL Pipeline, which had been halted by former President Joe Biden, hinting at a possible revival.
Former TransCanada Corporation executive Dennis McConaghy sees Trump’s mention of the pipeline as a strategic move within the trade deal negotiations. Since imposing tariffs on Canadian goods in 2025, Trump has targeted various sectors of Canada’s economy, insisting that the U.S. does not depend on Canadian products, despite exceptions like oil and minerals.
However, experts like Carlo Dade from the University of Calgary caution that reviving the Keystone XL project would face challenges, including political and environmental opposition. They also highlight the uncertainty of completing such a project given potential future changes in administrations.
While Trump’s remarks on Keystone XL are seen as a response to previous administrations, some experts believe that actually reviving the project would be complex and may not align with current market conditions.
The Keystone Pipeline System, operated by South Bow Corp., plays a crucial role in transporting Canadian and U.S. crude oil to American markets. Despite interest in reviving the Keystone XL project, its history of legal and environmental hurdles remains a significant factor.
South Bow, a company spun off from TC Energy in 2024, is exploring the Prairie Connector project with Bridger Pipeline, utilizing parts of the original Keystone XL pipeline. This project could significantly boost Canada’s crude oil exports to the U.S., pending final investment decisions.
In conclusion, while Trump’s mention of reviving the Keystone XL pipeline has sparked discussions, the actual feasibility and challenges of such a revival remain uncertain. The future of the project will likely be influenced by various factors, including political dynamics and market conditions.