The World Meteorological Organization announced on Thursday that the El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027 and could become the most intense on record. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated in a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend continues, this El Niño event could surpass any observed in the last four decades.
According to the UN weather agency, there is a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027 due to exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of certainty is unprecedented, as noted by the WMO.
A powerful El Niño can cause significant disruptions in global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather events such as typhoons. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the magnitude of the current El Niño event, stating that the planet is experiencing unprecedented warming.
El Niño is a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean triggered by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, affecting precipitation and drought patterns across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, resulting in a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates that this El Niño will peak later this year but will continue to influence global temperatures into 2027.
Secretary-General Saulo highlighted the WMO’s efforts to enhance preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate the effects of El Niño. The organization is collaborating with UN agencies and humanitarian partners to provide crucial climate information for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.