After Andy Burnham expressed his intention to compete in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer faced a challenging dilemma. Allowing Burnham to run posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge and eliminating a barrier to such a move, as only Members of Parliament are eligible to vie for the leadership role.
Moreover, the prospect of engaging in an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amid Labour’s upcoming challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May added to the complexity. Poor results for Labour in these contests could present a significant threat to Starmer, with figures like Burnham poised to seize the opportunity.
The alternative, which the Prime Minister opted for, involved blocking Burnham and citing the financial burden on taxpayers of organizing a mayoral race, along with the diversion of party resources from the May elections. While this move neutralized the immediate threat, its long-term repercussions could be severe.
Subsequent to the announcement, numerous Members of Parliament criticized Labour’s governing body for what they perceived as a setup. Burnham risks becoming a symbol of discontent for disillusioned backbenchers who view the decision as authoritarian behavior from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already demonstrated a tendency for rebellion by pressuring the Government into multiple reversals, and provoking them further will not facilitate Starmer’s leadership.
A government minister I conversed with prior to the decision suggested privately that allowing Burnham to run would have been a bolder move, and Starmer might appear weakened by blocking him.
No10 has aggressively briefed against Wes Streeting, identified as a potential leadership contender, and subsequently barred Burnham from returning to Westminster. The interpretation of these actions as indicators of strength or weakness varies depending on the perspective, though the majority lean towards the latter.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal disputes that the public is growing weary of. However, in reality, this may not be the case. Until Starmer can bolster Labour’s dwindling poll ratings, speculation about his future will persist.
While Burnham has his critics, some contend that his personal ambitions are overshadowing the needs of the people of Greater Manchester who elected him less than two years ago. Despite his unsuccessful bids for Labour leadership in the past, he remains a popular figure, earning the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour secured victory in Gorton comfortably in 2024, the party faces a challenge to retain it as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset, and the Greens aim to attract votes from the left. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the election outcome.
If Labour were to lose the upcoming by-election, significant consequences would ensue.